South Korea, Climate, Imperialism

While reading about how China's hegemony could be influential in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, I discovered that I was probably looking at the wrong spot. Then I decided to look at South Korea. Here are my notes.

The world context

First a couple of reminders from my readings on China.

Biden builds on the tension created by Trump, towards a new cold war on China. The plan is not to contain but to constrain it, and then dissolve through internal conflicts (Tibet, Taiwan, Xinjiang, Hong Kong). The US discourse is "rules-based international order" while China insists on the "UN-based order of sovereign states". *

For the US, two Koreas is better than a unified Korea because it can militarize one and put defense missile units (THAAD) in the region without neighboring China. For this, the US needs controlled tension between the two Koreas. *  

History of South Korea

The border between China and Korea is intact since 11th century. As Korea was under Japanese rule from 1910 until 1945, it was pulled into World War II, which then resulted in two Koreas. During the Korean war (1950-53), around 75% of all productive capacity was destroyed and around 10% of the population (2 million people) was killed. *

South Korea is one of the few countries where "catching-up development" worked. With active US support and under extremely dictatorial regimes (they count a total of 6 republics, interrupted by coups *), the state invested in education and manufacture, and then shifted to high-value technological manufacture. * This they did by direct, consistent state support to specific, family-owned conglomerates, called chaebols.

Economy of South Korea

South Korea today has a population of 50 million people (compared with 25 million in North Korea). It has the world's 10th largest GDP, ranks 3rd in automobile production and 1st in ship production. (Seoul alone has 10 million inhabitants and is the world's 4th largest metropolitan economy.)

The biggest chaebols, Samsung, Hyundai, LG and SK make up more than half of the sales. There are some 20 more chaebols, and they all together control two thirds of the economy. There are no small or medium-sized enterprises as chaebols do not leave space for such a thing.

Around 70% of university graduates apply to chaebols, which have their own entrance exams a couple of times a year, for which there are specific preparatory classes.

In courts, there is an informal "chaebol negotiation rule", which is that prison-time is commuted to probation (such as the reduction of their three-years jail-time due to massive scandals of tax evasion to five-years probation).

In short, the economy is mostly chaebols, which are - for all practical purposes - untouchable. * *

Current social situation of South Korea

After a center-left government under Moon, in March 2022 the conservative Yoon Suk-yeol won presidential elections. * This is interpreted as a shift to a hard-line position on North Korea as well as closer ties with the US. (I am following this. *) Yoon also ran a bold anti-feminist campaign.

 

Major social issues are increasing housing prices * and youth unemployment.*  

These are accompanied by a more structural issue: incredibly low birth rates. The expected babies per South Korean woman fell to 0.84 in 2020. * This puts pressure on social security and the state budget. The Moon government was experimenting with universal basic income *, while IMF suggests the usual spending cuts of public services and increased retirement age, which Yoon may follow. * 

Climate policy in South Korea

The direct impacts of climate change are heatwaves, increased rainfall and the sea level rise, together with air pollution.

The Moon administration had launched the Korea's Green New Deal which promised 650 thousand green jobs and around €50 billion in investments, in construction, renewable energy and mobility. The plan did not have emission cuts and carbon neutrality targets, so it's a green growth plan rather than a transition plan. * * And we can verify it with the news of the public energy company KEPCO's plan to build coal power plants in Indonesia. * 

In COP-26 in Glasgow, the government announced a target to reduce emissions by 40% below 2018 levels by 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2050.

It's unclear what would happen to the GND under Yoon administration.

The overall rating of South Korean climate policy is "highly insufficient", leading us to a 4ºC warming. *

In the Global Climate Strike in September 2019, around 5.000 protesters took the streets in Seoul. * In October 2021, Korean unions, led by the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions, staged a general strike across the country for workers’ rights and Just Transition. *

Summary of relevance

• South Korea will remain a geopolitical hot-spot of the tensions between the US and China.
• South Korea is crucial for the world economy, not only due to its size but also because of its strategic role in high-tech production.
  
• The conservative governmental history and the corporatist economy make social movement intervention harder.