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This to my mind is such a trivial note that I’m a little confused about why it needed writing (much less by me). I wasn’t aware, until very recently, that this wasn’t obvious for folks.
As European media amplifies noise production in representation of the panic of European capitalists, let’s take stock of Zelensky’s tragedy.
§1. Let’s first set the stage.
There is an ongoing struggle for global hegemony, between NATO (a.k.a. the United States of America) and China.
In the background we can see Russia’s decades-long commercial and geopolitical convergence with China and Russia’s engagement with the Belt and Road Initiative as a bridge between China and Europe. Also in the background we have been seeing a systematically increasing escalation by NATO for “trade wars” against China, in order to maintain and recover markets and influence.
One of the proxy wars is taking place in Ukranian territories, the proxies being Russia and the European Union.
§2. This battle is won by the US.
The EU cut commercial ties with Russia (from oil and gas to financial flows), which were replaced by stronger ties with the US in almost all sectors.
The EU put in place numerous sanctions against Russia, which block the original plan of Russia serving as bridge between China and Europe.
In a swift move, the NATO imposed total censorship to Russia Today (from websites to social media), the main propaganda tool of the Russian government, in order to control the entire narrative directed at Western audiences. Thereby, the only facts and opinions available are passing through the lenses of Western media first.
China abstained (once again) and abandoned Russia in Ukraine.
Putin lost the Wagner group. Plus and consequently, lost capacity to participate in other conflicts (e.g. complete abstention in the Congo massacres).
NATO won Finland over.
As a bonus and to its own surprise, NATO won another proxy-war, in Syria.
Also as a bonus: Apparently the Ukrainian government is so tired that it can be forced into a neocolonial deal directly with the US, without any mediation through NATO or the EU.
§3. Trump said he would end this war. (This is partly because Trump himself is on the same side as Putin, and perhaps there might be a more-than-personal shift in geopolitics.)
Trump promised this to its electoral base and to working class people who are tired of wars. He lied, of course, given his passion with genocide in Palestine.
But he managed to promise the end of war and he manages to deliver it because it is won.
To this effect, Trump told Zelensky: “Look, my war is over and I won. Now I’ll have to offer something to Putin for him to save face, and I’ll keep the rest of your territory.”
Probably the offer to Putin is “self-determination” in the regions occupied by the Russian army (via the referendums that Putin has been announcing).
In the meantime, Trump transformed the past US military support into loans. In other words, he declared overnight that Ukraine owed billions of dollars to the US. In return, he initially proposed the mine deal, but it should be the beginning of a neocolonial process.
§4. Russia lost this war on the day China abstained (this was, I think, on the second week of the invasion). From that moment on, Putin has been insisting – with weekly declarations – in a diplomatic solution and negotiations. (Of course, the BBC or the Guardian wouldn’t reproduce these parts of his discourse, available in Russia Today, which in turn is unavailable for people in Europe.)
The hot war itself is in deadlock. Two weeks ago, Euronews made the news that two Russian drones killed 2 people and injured 1 person in Ukraine. This, according to Euronews, was one of four main headlines of the day. In other words, the state of war in Ukraine is currently as mortal as driving a car in Portugal. Until the deal is signed, further operations and bombings will serve to increase his hand in negotiations.
Putin cannot end this war without declaring victory, because his domestic legitimacy depends on the imperial power he represents. That’s why he needs a photo in which he is treated as equal to NATO. Trump offers him this.
§5. Zelensky unfortunately still believes that this was has to do with him. But he also understands that the only way of saving his own career is to insist in his chauvinistic nationalism to consolidate his base. (Recall that Zelensky’s party belongs to the alliance right-wing market fanatics, which includes FDP in Germany and Iniciativa Liberal in Portugal.) Both of these aspects went pretty poorly in the last weeks:
Ukraine is about to be divided into two neocolonialized regions, between the US and Russia. A good part of its infrastructure is destroyed, and its people is tired.
After the communication crisis with Trump and Vance, the mobilizations in Kiev in support of Zelensky were extremely weak.
His attitude towards Trump was a disaster for Zelensky. All his team was crying as they left the White House. Zelensky came out as a subsidy-dependent “warmonger”, who wouldn’t stop using Western money and who wouldn’t think about solutions. This attitude proved Russian nationalists and Trump’s base to be right (in their own heads), consolidating support for Putin and Trump.
§6. European bourgeoisie lost influence with this war.
The US won everything, and the EU couldn’t establish any autonomous position: all the terms of the discussion were set by the US and NATO.
They are now in panic. They are holding meetings after meetings, but those meetings don’t have any agenda nor any outcomes other than press conferences.
§7. China hasn’t been proactive in terms of territorial division in the world. It left Libya to be invaded ten years ago; abandoned Syria to itself; abstained completely about Ukraine; and isn’t doing much about the societal collapse in eastern parts of Congo. (All of these are part of the proxy wars between the US and China.)
§8. Obviously, like any other imperial war, the peoples are the ones sure to be on the losing side. The war in Ukraine effectively ended in the last weeks. From here on, the suffering of the Ukrainian people will be the “normal” suffering of exploitation, injustice, inequality and climate collapse.
It was heart-breaking that we couldn’t establish an alternative from the bottom and to the left. (The socialists were banned, some anarchists joined the resistance but couldn’t build up a counter-hegemonic force.) The real options then ended up between Putin’s extreme-right invasion, local extreme-right and Nazis supported by the EU, and the extreme-right of Zelensky. Among these options, the working people will remain on the losing side.
§9. From here onward, we are to hear more warmongering and more militarization in Europe, more money to the military complex taken from public services, and more borders for people. The European Commission doesn’t have a clear direction because there is no consensus among the European capitalists. There is no consensus because they don’t have an alternative to the US. They had an option to abstain in the war in Ukraine, instead they aligned with the US, and now they reached the end of the dead-end street that they had being walking through.
They are playing a hand they don't have.
This is therefore an opportunity for the European left. A clear anti-militarization agenda (refusing any increase in military funding or military capacity) and an accompanying anti-war campaign (connecting Ukraine and Palestine) are the only ways out. This strategy was the right one also a couple of years ago, but now it has much more leverage in Europe.
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